Stock in Focus: FIL-ESTATE LAND, INC. (August14, 2009)

(This analysis is for August 17 - 21, 2009)

BUSINESS PROFILE

Fil-Estate Land, Inc. (LND) was incorporated on May 18, 1994 to consolidate the real estate interests and development activities of the Fil-Estate Group of Companies. LND was also tasked to engage in land acquisitions and to maintain an inventory of raw land for future development by its subsidiaries. LND went public in November 1995 when its common shares were listed at the Philippine Stock Exchange.

LND has three wholly-owned subsidiaries, namely, Fil-Estate Properties, Inc. (FEPI), Fil-Estate Golf and Development, Inc. (FEGDI), and Fil-Estate Urban Development Corporation (FEUDC). FEPI and FEUDC are engaged primarily in residential projects while FEGDI is engaged in golf and leisure development. The developments of these various projects are still ongoing to date.

LND also owns 20% of the equity of each of the five (5) marketing companies, namely, Fil-Estate Realty Corporation, Fil-Estate Marketing Associates, Inc., Fil-Estate Network, Inc., Fil-Estate Sales, Inc. and Fil-Estate Realty Sales Associates, Inc. All of LND's properties are marketed through these marketing companies.

Source: SEC Form 17-A (2008)

Reference: http://www.pse.com.ph/

(Note: double click image to enlarge)

Analysis:

LND has closed below its Short time moving average. It is currently in a trading range with an ADX reading of 30.61 and ATR reading of 0.02 for the past 10 days. Short time moving average is currently above mid-time, and above long time moving averages. The relationship between price and moving averages is: neutral in short-term, and bullish in mid-long term.

LND has closed above bottom band by 26.2%. Bollinger Bands are 34.8% wider than normal. The current width of the bands (alone) does not suggest anything conclusive about the future volatility or movement of prices.

LND market volatility for the past 10 days is 88.35%.

(Note: double click image to enlarge)

Support/Resistance:

Price has currently corrected 50% base from the Fibonacci retracement, exactly located at a major Fibonacci support line. S/R support line is located at 0.31. Next Fibonacci and S/R resistance line is located at 0.34.

(Note: double click image to enlarge)

Buy/Sell:

LND momentum has slightly increase to -0.03 for the past 10 days.

The current value for the 10 day RSI is 49.09.
The RSI does not currently show any Failure Swings nor the RSI and price are diverging.

The Williams %R for past 10 days is -87.50. It is already at the oversold area.

Currently the MACD is bearish since it is trading below its signal line.
The MACD crossed below its signal line 2 days ago. LND a has ranged from a high of 0.350 to a low of 0.320. There have been no divergence signals within the last 5 days.

Suggestion: BUY

I rated this as BUY because:
1) Momentum is starting to build up already and buying interest is already present.
2) RSI is not overbought and near 50 where a major support line is located.
3) It is already overbought based from the reading from our William's %R indicator.

But even with this signs lets be vigilant because it still needs to break the resistance near 0.35 to finally breakout, hoping its current support line at 0.33 holds. I suggest to always set a stop loss just in case projection is wrong.

Target Price for August 17, 2009 is 0.38.

Probability of Finishing Above Upper Target : 15.87 %
Probability of Finishing Below Upper Target : 84.13 %