(This analysis is for October 19 - 23, 2009)
BUSINESS PROFILE
Ayala Land, Inc. (ALI) was organized in 1988 when Ayala Corporation decided to spin off its real estate division into an independent subsidiary to enhance management focus on its real estate business. ALI went public in July 1991 when its class "B" common shares were listed both in the Manila and Makati Stock Exchanges. On September 12, 1997, the Securities and Exchange Commission approved the declassification of ALI's common class "A" and common class "B" shares into common shares.
ALI has organized its operations into several core businesses and support businesses. Its core businesses are composed of strategic landbank management, residential development, shopping centers, corporate businesses, and geographic businesses. On the other end, ALI's support businesses consist of construction, hotels, property management, and waterworks operations. ALI also derives other income from its investment activities and sale of non-core assets.
The company continues to pursue major high-end land development projects, residential and office condominium development, leisure community projects, and shopping center operations. Its ongoing land development projects include Abrio at NUVALI, Ayala Westgrove Heights, Sonera, Alegria Hills and Ayala Northpoint. Residential condominium projects that have been undertaken in the past three years include The Residences at Greenbelt. Shopping center operations at Ayala Center are ongoing while further redevelopment of both Glorietta and Greenbelt has been pursued. Operation of traditional headquarter-type and BPO buildings likewise continues. ALI also introduced in 2005 its first leisure community project, Anvaya Cove.
Source: SEC Form 17-A (2008)
Analysis:
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ALI has closed below its Short time moving average.
Short time moving average is currently above mid-time, and above long time moving averages. The relationship between price and moving averages is: neutral in short-term, and bullish in mid-long term.
ALI has closed above bottom band by 15.2%.
Bollinger Bands are 2.2% wider than normal.
The current width of the bands (alone) does not suggest anything conclusive about the future volatility or movement of prices.
ALI is currently on retracement in an upward trend. Current trend strength is 36.60. Average daily range is 0.42.
ALI current average volume for the past 2 weeks is 11,481,430. Last friday's volume is slightly below this average. It registered a reading of about 9, 748, 100.
50 Day Historical Volatility (preferably greater than 40%): 36%
6/100 Historical Volatility (preferably less than 50%): 92%
Support / Resistance:
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ALI currently corrected for about 34%. Its nearest Fibonacci support line is at 10.82 while its nearest resistance line is at 12.5.
For the S/R, its nearest support line is at 11. While its nearest resistance line is at 11.25.
Base from the weekly pivot point analysis of ALI:
Main pivot point for the week is 12.08.
This are the primary support lines of ALI this week: 11.67, 11.33, and 10.92
While its primary resistance lines for this week are: 12.42, 12.83, and 13.17
Based from this analysis, we can conclude that the best price to enter ALI is around the range of 11.33 and 10.92 of our pivot point analysis. Nearest Fibonacci and S/R support are all inside of this range.
Buy / Sell:
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ALI's momentum is somewhat bearish at -0.04. This confirmed that it is on retracement or consolidation stage.
RSI reading is 44.43. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago. Based from this reading also we can conclude that there is are strong resistance on our chart that ALI needs to break inorder to proceed upward.
Fast stochastic reading is at 6.67 and is at the oversold area already.
Currently the MACD is bearish since it is trading below its signal line.
The MACD crossed below its signal line 4 days ago.
Since the MACD crossed its moving average, ALI's price has decreased -6.383%
And has ranged from a high of 12.000 to a low of 11.000
Recommendation: BUY
Though ALI is on retracement, we can start buying few shares due to the fact that it is already on extremely overbought area, currently consolidated enough, and is standing or near already our major support line. If you want for a more safer entry then wait for a confirmation signal for a buy based on the candlestick formation or with our MACD signal line crossover.
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