Sunday, January 17, 2010

STOCK IN FOCUS: SMDC


Figure 1. SMDC Chart

Price and moving averages:
SMDC has closed above its Short time moving average.
Short time moving average is currently below mid-time, AND above long time moving averages.
The relationship between price and moving averages is: neutral in short-term, and neutral in mid-long term.

Bollinger Bands:
SMDC has closed below upper band by 1.6%.
Bollinger Bands are 44.0% narrower than normal.
The narrow width of the bands suggests low volatility as compared to SMDC's normal range.  Therefore, the probability of volatility increasing with a sharp price move has increased for the near-term. The bands have been in this narrow range for 10 bars. The probability of a significant price move increases the longer the bands remain in this narrow range.

Volatility:
SMDC volatility is above its 2 weeks average value.
50 day Historical Volatility is 33% (desired: greater than 40%).
6/100 day ratio Historical Volatility is 0.50 ( desired: less than 0.50).

Trend Direction and Strength:
SMDC is moving sideways to down in a weak trend strength.

Support/Resistance Lines:
Support: 3.80 - 3.95
Resistance: 4.10 - 4.15



Figure 2. Other Technical Indicators.

RSI:
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas.  The current value of the RSI is 57.35.  This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area.  The last signal was a sell 31 period(s) ago.

Stochastic:
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20).  The Stochastic Oscillator is 66.67.  This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a  buy 19 period(s) ago.

MACD:
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its signal line. The last signal was a buy  5 period(s) ago.

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