Stock in Focus: ALLIANCE GLOBAL GROUP, INC. (September 11, 2009)

(This analysis is for September 14 - 18, 2009)

BUSINESS PROFILE

Alliance Global Group, Inc. (AGI) was incorporated on October 12, 1993 and listed its shares at the Philippine Stock Exchange on April 19, 1999. AGI began operations in 1994 as a glass-container manufacturer after it acquired a glass manufacturing plant in Canlubang, Laguna. In 1999, it obtained approval from the Securities and Exchange Commission to broaden its primary business into that of a holding company. Given a wider scope of business, AGI immediately diversified into the food and beverage and real estate development and services business, and, a few years later, into the quick service restaurant (QSR) business.

AGI is a holding company presently engaged in the food and beverage business (manufacturing and trading of consumer products), real estate (investment in and development of real estate, lease of properties, hotel operations and tourism-oriented businesses), and quick service restaurant (McDonald's). Through its subsidiaries and associates, the company focuses on providing and developing products and services that cater to the needs, demands and aspirations of the country's growing middle income sector.

AGI's subsidiaries include, among others, Emperador Distillers, Inc., Anglo Watsons Glass, Inc., Alliance Global Brands, Inc., Megaworld Corporation, Travellers International Hotel Group, Inc., and Golden Arches Development Corporation.

Source: SEC Form 17-A (2008)

Reference: http://www.pse.com.ph/

Analysis:

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AGI has closed below its short time moving average.
Short time moving average is currently above mid-time, and above long time moving averages. The relationship between price and moving averages is: neutral in short-term, and bullish in mid to long term.

For the past 10 days the average price range of AGI is 0.18 and its upward trend strength is 33.18.

AGI has closed below upper band by 47.0%.
Bollinger Bands are 3.9% wider than normal.
The current width of the bands (alone) does not suggest anything conclusive about the future volatility or movement of prices.

AGI has moved in the past month for 1.25 points.

50 Day Historical Volatility (preferably greater than 40%): 51%

6/100 Historical Volatility (preferably less than 50%): 32%

Support/Resistance:

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Fibonacci retracement major support line is located at 4.26 and its major resistance is at 5.3. S/R support line is at 4.55.

Base from the weekly pivot point analysis of AGI.
This are the primary support lines of AGI this week: 4.40, 4.10 and 3.75
While its primary resistance lines for this week are: 5.05, 5.40 and 5.70

Take note the nearest support line is from S/R of 4.55 if this will not hold look for possible entries around 4.40 and 4.10. Fibonacci support line is inside those pivot point support lines.

Buy/Sell:

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AGI's momentum for the past 12 days is somewhat bearish with a strength of -0.01.

RSI reading is 54.14 (10 days). The last signal was a sell 6 days ago. The RSI and price are not diverging.

Williams %R reading is -76.47 (10 days). It just triggered the buy signal.

Currently the MACD is bearish since it is trading below its signal line.
The MACD crossed below its signal line 5 days ago.
Since the MACD crossed its moving average, AGI's price has decreased -1.064%
And has ranged from a high of 4.800 to a low of 4.450. There have been no divergence signals within the last 5 days.

Recommendation: Buy

This is a buy based from the status of our leading indicator for buy/sell signal.. But always look for good opportunities to enter this trade. Example is a higher high candle stick pattern in the next coming days, or the breaking of resistance lines, or even the signal confirmation to buy from our lagging indicator the MACD. Lastly always set your stop loss or cut loss for this stock in cases our analysis is wrong..