Friday, September 4, 2009

Stock in Focus: CYBER BAY CORPORATION (September 4, 2009)

(This analysis is for September 7 - 11, 2009)

BUSINESS PROFILE

Cyber Bay Corporation (CYBR) was originally incorporated on July 6, 1989 as First Lepanto Corporation. The company changed its corporate name to Centennial City in 1996, and to Cyber Bay Corporation in 2000. CYBR is presently involved in real estate development (except real estate subdivision) and reclamation.

On March 30, 1996, CYBR, Central Bay Reclamation and Development Corporation (Central Bay) and certain Central Bay shareholders entered into a memorandum of agreement which involved the restructuring of CYBR and the consolidation of certain businesses and assets of CYBR and Central Bay.

The restructuring of CYBR entailed the transfer to Prime Orion Philippines, Inc. of CYBR's investments in certain corporations and the settlement of all intercompany liabilities relating to such corporations. Upon completion of the business consolidation, CYBR assumed full ownership of Central Bay, including its joint venture agreement with the Philippine Reclamation Authority (formerly Public Estates Authority) to reclaim 750 hectares of land along Manila Bay (the Cyber Bay Project) as its new property core holding.

However, CYBR got into a legal battle with the government concerning the ownership of the Central Bay Reclamation and Development Corporation. The issue had also put on hold the joint venture agreement for the company's Cyber Bay Project.

On August 10, 2007, CYBR filed its claim for reimbursement with the Philippine Reclamation Authority (PRA) amounting to P10.23 billion for the initial payment of all costs, losses, liabilities, and expenses computed as of December 31, 2006. Despite the nullification of the contract, management still intends to continue its operations and utilize any reimbursements that it may obtain from the PRA to fund other business and development ventures.

Source: SEC Form 17-A (2008)

Reference: http://www.pse.com.ph/

(Note: double click image to enlarge)
Analysis:

CYBR has closed below its Short time moving average and is currently consolidating with a trend strength of about 41.58 for the short term view.

Average price range for the past 10 days is approximately 0.03.

Short time moving average is currently above mid-time, and above long time moving averages.
The relationship between price and moving averages is: neutral in short-term, and bullish in mid to long term.

Bollinger Bands are 58.8% narrower than normal. CYBR has closed above bottom band by 16.9%. The narrow width of the bands suggests low volatility as compared to CYBR's normal range. Therefore, the probability of volatility increasing with a sharp price move has increased for the near-term. The bands have been in this narrow range for 2 days. The probability of a significant price move increases the longer the bands remain in this narrow range.

CYBR's historical volatility for the past 10 days is 27.92%. This indicates that it is already consolidating long enough and there is a big probability of a price breakout soon.


(Note: double click image to enlarge)

Support/Resistance:

The only clear indication of a major support line for CYBR is at 0.65, which is based from the Fibonacci retracement.

Base from the weekly pivot point analysis of CYBR.
This are the primary support lines of CYBR this week: 0.68, 0.65, and 0.63
While its primary resistance lines for this week are: 0.73, 0.75, and 0.78

Pivot point support line at 0.65 is the same as the Fibonacci retracement, therefore this confirms the location of our major support line at 0.65.

(Note: double click image to enlarge)

Buy/Sell:

CYBR's momentum for the past 10 days is somewhat bearish with a strength of -0.05.

The RSI reading is 49.05. Base from this we can conclude that a hidden resistance line can be found somewhere around 0.70. The last sell signal happened 12 days ago. The RSI and price are not diverging.

Williams %R reading is -100 and is already at the oversold area. So expect some increase in the buyers of this stock this week.

Currently the MACD is bearish since it is trading below its signal line.
The MACD crossed below its signal line 12 days ago.
Since the MACD crossed its moving average, CYBR's price has decreased -2.857%
And has ranged from a high of 0.750 to a low of 0.680.
There have been no divergence signals within the last 5 days.

Suggestion: BUY

I suggest you buy this stock if you can within the range 0.65 to 0.68 as indicated from our pivot point analysis and the location of our nearest major support (0.65) and resistance line (hidden near 0.70).

Target price for CYBR for the week is at least 0.73. This is based from the our 1st pivot point resistance line.







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