Stock in Focus: PAXYS, INC. (August 7, 2009)

(This analysis is for August 10 - 14, 2009)

BUSINESS PROFILE

Paxys, Inc. (PAX) was originally incorporated on February 14, 1952 as Fil-Hispano Holdings Corporation and engaged in the manufacturing of ceramics. In 1999 to 2002, Fil-Hispano closed its manufacturing operations and disposed of its land and other assets related to the ceramic business. In 2004, the principal shareholder of Advanced Contact Solutions, Inc. (ACS), a call center company, acquired a controlling stake in Fil-Hispano through a reverse takeover by injecting 100% of ACS into Fil-Hispano, effectively making the latter the first call center firm to be listed in the Philippine Stock Exchange. On October 14, 2005, the Securities and Exchange Commission approved Fil-Hispano's application for a change in name from Fil-Hispano Holdings Corporation to Paxys, Inc.

PAX is a holding company that focuses on investments in the business process outsourcing (BPO) industry within the Asia Pacific region. The company's subsidiaries are engaged in diversified services such as contact center, data transcription, salary packaging and software solutions. PAX's subsidiaries consist of ACS, ScopeWorks Asia, Inc., Global Ideology Corporation, Paxys N.V., Paxys Australia Pty. Ltd., SmartSalary Pty. Ltd, Stellar Global Solutions Philippines, Inc., and Ubaldo Reidenbach Solutions, Inc.

Source: SEC Form 17-A (2008)

Reference: http://www.pse.com.ph/

(Note: double click image to enlarge)

Analysis:

PAX has closed below its Short time moving average.
It is currently in a trading range with an ADX reading of 26.67 and ATR reading of 0.17 for the past 10 days. Short time moving average is currently above mid-time, and above long time moving averages. The relationship between price and moving averages is: neutral in short-term, and bullish in mid-long term.

PAX has closed above bottom band by 27.9%.
Bollinger Bands are 32.1% narrower than normal.
The current width of the bands (alone) does not suggest anything conclusive about the future volatility or movement of prices.

PAX market volatility for the past 10 days is 61.38%.

(Note: double click image to enlarge)

Support/Resistance:

Price is current standing at this major fibonnaci support line and the S/R support line. Next fibonnaci resistance is located at 3.25 while the next S/R resistance is at 3.15.

(Note: double click image to enlarge)

Buy/Sell:

PAX momentum has slowed down to -0.04 for the past 10 days.

The current value for the 10 day RSI is 51.88. It is not currently in a topping (above 70) or bottoming (below 30) range. The RSI has just reached its lowest value in the last 10 days. This is bearish. The RSI and price are not diverging.

The Williams %R for past 10 days is -90. It is already at the oversold area.

Currently the MACD is bearish since it is trading below its signal line. The MACD crossed below its signal line 2 days ago. Since the MACD crossed its moving average, PAX's price has decreased -1.818% and has ranged from a high of 2.900 to a low of 2.650

Suggestion: BUY

Although there is no indication of a buy base on the indicators it is already a good to time to buy because the price is standing at a major support line and is already oversold.

Target Price for August 10, 2009 is 3.00.

Probability of Finishing Above Upper Target : 15.87 %
Probability of Finishing Below Upper Target : 84.13 %

Stock in Focus: SOUTHEAST ASIA CEMENT HOLDINGS, INC. (June 29, 2009)

BUSINESS PROFILE

SOUTHEAST ASIA CEMENT HOLDINGS, INC.

Southeast Asia Cement Holdings, Inc. (CMT) was established on May 3, 1994 as a cement holding company, and listed at the Philippine Stock Exchange on December 14, 1994. In December 2003, CMT subscribed to 1,548,614,753 common shares of Republic Cement Corporation. As payment for the said subscription, CMT exchanged its 19,960,995 common shares in FR Cement Corporation (FRCC) and 10,000,000 common shares in Lloyds Richfield Industrial Corporation (LRIC). As a result, FRCC and LRIC ceased to be subsidiaries of CMT. Accordingly, Republic became an associate investee of CMT.

On October 9, 2007, the Securities and Exchange Commission approved the merger of CMT's subsidiaries, Seacem Silos, Inc. (SSI) and Seacem Trading Corporation (STC), SSI's subsidiary, Agrodynamics Philippines, Inc., and STC's subsidiary, Hopkins Holdings, Inc., where SSI is the surviving corporation. SSI remains a wholly-owned subsidiary of CMT. SSI has not started commercial operations.

Source: SEC Form 17-A (2007)

Reference: http://www.pse.com.ph/

(Note: double click image to enlarge)

Analysis:

CMT is now -0.10 bearish. The drop of the DOW and PSE did not affected CMT from improving its status. It finally crosses above the 10 day moving average signifying that it is now starting to be bullish. A mini hammer formation is another proof of a more bullish trend expected to occur by tomorrow hoping DOW will end the day well. ADX reading is 35.74 and Williams %R reading is -59.09.

Bollinger Bands are 67.3% narrower than normal. The narrow width of the bands suggests low volatility as compared to CMT()'s normal range. Therefore, the probability of volatility increasing with a sharp price move has increased for the near-term. The bands have been in this narrow range for the past 7 days. The probability of a significant price move increases the longer the bands remain in this narrow range.

(Note: double picture to enlarge)

Support/Resistance:

Despite the drop of the market today, CMT's major support line at 50% fibonacci fan still holds. It just pass by the 38.2% fibonacci time extension line. This together with the bullish hammer candlestick will indicate a possible increase in price the next coming days. Hopefully by tomorrow if not the next day. As long as this support line is not broken we will expect the price to continue trending upward along this support line.

Suggestion: BUY

Stock in Focus: SOUTHEAST ASIA CEMENT HOLDINGS, INC. (June 26, 2009)

BUSINESS PROFILE

SOUTHEAST ASIA CEMENT HOLDINGS, INC.

Southeast Asia Cement Holdings, Inc. (CMT) was established on May 3, 1994 as a cement holding company, and listed at the Philippine Stock Exchange on December 14, 1994. In December 2003, CMT subscribed to 1,548,614,753 common shares of Republic Cement Corporation. As payment for the said subscription, CMT exchanged its 19,960,995 common shares in FR Cement Corporation (FRCC) and 10,000,000 common shares in Lloyds Richfield Industrial Corporation (LRIC). As a result, FRCC and LRIC ceased to be subsidiaries of CMT. Accordingly, Republic became an associate investee of CMT.

On October 9, 2007, the Securities and Exchange Commission approved the merger of CMT's subsidiaries, Seacem Silos, Inc. (SSI) and Seacem Trading Corporation (STC), SSI's subsidiary, Agrodynamics Philippines, Inc., and STC's subsidiary, Hopkins Holdings, Inc., where SSI is the surviving corporation. SSI remains a wholly-owned subsidiary of CMT. SSI has not started commercial operations.

Source: SEC Form 17-A (2007)

Reference: http://www.pse.com.ph/

(Note: double click image to enlarge)

Analysis:

Base on the 20 day DPO reading, CMT is -0.01 bearish. The Williams %R reading is -70.37 indicating a BUY signal since June 24, 2009. Upward trend strength is now 38.19 base on ADX reading. This slowdown in trend strength is mainly due to the fact that many traders have neglected the capability of this stock. Before the retracement, CMT has the strongest trend strength among the other stocks. Its strongest ADX reading of 76.30 occured last June 5, 2009 before the retracement occured. A proof that this stock was simply neglected can be seen after the big flash out of traders that occured June 17, 2009. Three consecutive horizontally alligned dojis occured and small volatility can be seen here onwards. The bollinger bands also can attest to this. According to the bollinger band readings, the price have been on this narrow range for 6 days already and the longer it stays on this range the greater is the probability of a significant price increase. What usually happens after a small volatility in stock is a large volatility, therefore this factor is a big plus to this stock.

(Note: double picture to enlarge)

Support/Resistance:

Based on fibonnaci readings the current price is above the 38.2% fibonnaci retracement support line at 0.74. The price is also currently trending along the 50% fibonnaci fan support line. Then base on the fibonnaci time extension the price just reach the 38.2% line, so we expect a major change in price direction possibly upward by monday or tuesday.

Suggestion: BUY

Stock Market Wisdom from Chicken Little

by: Gary Wollin

One day, while Chicken Little was walking in the woods, an acorn fell and hit him on his head.

"Goodness gracious me!" said Chicken Little, "The sky is falling, the sky is falling. I must go warn everyone."

We see this all the time. The stock market goes straight up for eight or nine months, and if there are 2 or 3 down days in a row, there is hand-wringing and the moaning all over the place.

Who are these people that panic at the first sign of a downturn or with the slightest bit of profit taking?

The first group are people who get in the near the top and are now worried that their small losses will turn into big losses. Also, people who haven't invested in the stock market are in this same box. For many, many years they were wrong to not have invested, but now that the market has declined very slightly for a few days they would like the point out how smart they are and how dumb everyone else is.

Short–sellers are the next group. Short selling is selling a security that the seller does not own but is committed to repurchasing eventually. It is used to take advantage of an expected decline in the security's price.

The press comes next. You have heard this before: "bad news sells newspapers."

The 24–hour television news stations must make every tiny move in a stock or in the stock market seem like a momentous occasion. Imagine hearing such a stupid statement as "this is the largest stock market decline since last week."

The slimiest are the politicians whose party is out of power. They try to make themselves look good by making the other guys look bad. It does not matter which group you belong to or who is in power or out of power at the moment.

An out of power politician must find the cloud in every silver lining.

So, how can you protect yourself? What should you do to keep out of "the sky is falling" trap?

The most important thing that you can do is to be clear about your long-term financial goals and objectives. Yes, in the very short run, many circumstances can affect the value of your portfolio. In a well-diversified portfolio, these declines will be relatively small and short lived.

Twenty years from now, it will not have mattered who was shot during the past twenty years or who was in power or who went to jail or to war. Simply ask yourself, "how will three dollar a gallon gasoline affect my retirement twenty years from now?"

Don't worry about tales of imminent doom and gloom. Don't listen to, and certainly, don't act upon rumors and scare stories. And, most of all, don't spread these stories yourself.

About The Author

Gary Wollin is a Warren Buffet style investment advisor with 45+ years of Wall Street experience. He has been regularly featured in The Wall Street Journal and New York Times. He writes and speaks on sales, customer loyalty, and the stock market. http://www.garywollin.com

5 Tips to Investing Successfully in the Stock Market

by: Chris Strudwick

Here is a simple 5 Step process to help get you started out on the right track..

1. Finding a stock.

This is the most obvious and most difficult step in stock trading. With well over 10,000 stocks to trade in a good guideline is to consider first in which sector you wish to trade in first.

Of course you would be looking at a sector that is receiving good media coverage and in which the stocks concerned are going in in value.It stands to reason that you would not be looking too hard at a sector that was experiencing a severe downturn.

Once you have decided in which sector you want to invest in, you can then commence to start researching for a stock.

It is always best to have a system of rules already in place that will be used before buy each stock.

2. Fundamental Analysis.

A lot of short term traders might argue with the need to do any Fundamental Analysis at all, however knowing the stocks past history and the latest up to date news regarding the stock can be very crucial.

A good example would be the earnings season. If you are planning on buying a stock that has missed its earnings target the last 3 quarters, I dare say caution might be very wise.

3. Technical Analysis.

This is the part where the indicators play a part. Stochastics, the MACD, volume, moving averages, RSI, CCI, support levels, resistance levels and all the rest. Whichever batch of indicators you choose, whether they are lagging or leading, may entirely hinge on where you get your information from.

Keep it very simple when you first start out, for using too many indicators in the first place is a guarantee to achieve big losses. Get comfortable using one or two indicators first. Learn their intricacies thouroughly, and you'll be on the road to making more profitable trades.

4. Follow your choices.

Once you have committed to a couple of trades you should then start to manage them properly. For instance if the stock is meant to be a short term trade you would then obviously be watching it more closely for your exit signals. If it's a longer term trade you then of course need to set up different time frames such as weekly or monthly checkups on the stock.This effectively frees you up and gives you more time to do other things.

You can use this time wisely for keeping up to date with the news, determining your price targets, set stop losses, and keeping an eye on other stocks that you may want to purchase in the future.

5. Keeping an eye on the bigger picture.

This is best achieved by following the particular sector in which you bought your shares .For instance, if you are expecting a share price to go up on an oil stock you purchased and nearly all of the other stocks in oil sector are also rising, then this is cofirmation that you may have made the right decision.

But of course the reverse holds true as well. If the oil sector is starting to show a decline then it might be a good idea to take your profits and run. By knowing in advance and being aware which sectors are hotting up or cooling off stacks the odds in your favour.

For more information on Researching and other related articles go to our Education Section here at Asxnewbie

You just never know which GEM of information might turn up which could lead you to your next profitable trade.

About The Author

Chris Strudwick is a successful share trader on the Australian Stock Market Visit his weblogs at both http://www.asxnewbie.com AND http://www.aussie-retiree.com/ for more useful information about the stock market.