Stock in Focus: PAXYS, INC. (August 7, 2009)

(This analysis is for August 10 - 14, 2009)

BUSINESS PROFILE

Paxys, Inc. (PAX) was originally incorporated on February 14, 1952 as Fil-Hispano Holdings Corporation and engaged in the manufacturing of ceramics. In 1999 to 2002, Fil-Hispano closed its manufacturing operations and disposed of its land and other assets related to the ceramic business. In 2004, the principal shareholder of Advanced Contact Solutions, Inc. (ACS), a call center company, acquired a controlling stake in Fil-Hispano through a reverse takeover by injecting 100% of ACS into Fil-Hispano, effectively making the latter the first call center firm to be listed in the Philippine Stock Exchange. On October 14, 2005, the Securities and Exchange Commission approved Fil-Hispano's application for a change in name from Fil-Hispano Holdings Corporation to Paxys, Inc.

PAX is a holding company that focuses on investments in the business process outsourcing (BPO) industry within the Asia Pacific region. The company's subsidiaries are engaged in diversified services such as contact center, data transcription, salary packaging and software solutions. PAX's subsidiaries consist of ACS, ScopeWorks Asia, Inc., Global Ideology Corporation, Paxys N.V., Paxys Australia Pty. Ltd., SmartSalary Pty. Ltd, Stellar Global Solutions Philippines, Inc., and Ubaldo Reidenbach Solutions, Inc.

Source: SEC Form 17-A (2008)

Reference: http://www.pse.com.ph/

(Note: double click image to enlarge)

Analysis:

PAX has closed below its Short time moving average.
It is currently in a trading range with an ADX reading of 26.67 and ATR reading of 0.17 for the past 10 days. Short time moving average is currently above mid-time, and above long time moving averages. The relationship between price and moving averages is: neutral in short-term, and bullish in mid-long term.

PAX has closed above bottom band by 27.9%.
Bollinger Bands are 32.1% narrower than normal.
The current width of the bands (alone) does not suggest anything conclusive about the future volatility or movement of prices.

PAX market volatility for the past 10 days is 61.38%.

(Note: double click image to enlarge)

Support/Resistance:

Price is current standing at this major fibonnaci support line and the S/R support line. Next fibonnaci resistance is located at 3.25 while the next S/R resistance is at 3.15.

(Note: double click image to enlarge)

Buy/Sell:

PAX momentum has slowed down to -0.04 for the past 10 days.

The current value for the 10 day RSI is 51.88. It is not currently in a topping (above 70) or bottoming (below 30) range. The RSI has just reached its lowest value in the last 10 days. This is bearish. The RSI and price are not diverging.

The Williams %R for past 10 days is -90. It is already at the oversold area.

Currently the MACD is bearish since it is trading below its signal line. The MACD crossed below its signal line 2 days ago. Since the MACD crossed its moving average, PAX's price has decreased -1.818% and has ranged from a high of 2.900 to a low of 2.650

Suggestion: BUY

Although there is no indication of a buy base on the indicators it is already a good to time to buy because the price is standing at a major support line and is already oversold.

Target Price for August 10, 2009 is 3.00.

Probability of Finishing Above Upper Target : 15.87 %
Probability of Finishing Below Upper Target : 84.13 %

Stock in Focus: SOUTHEAST ASIA CEMENT HOLDINGS, INC. (June 29, 2009)

BUSINESS PROFILE

SOUTHEAST ASIA CEMENT HOLDINGS, INC.

Southeast Asia Cement Holdings, Inc. (CMT) was established on May 3, 1994 as a cement holding company, and listed at the Philippine Stock Exchange on December 14, 1994. In December 2003, CMT subscribed to 1,548,614,753 common shares of Republic Cement Corporation. As payment for the said subscription, CMT exchanged its 19,960,995 common shares in FR Cement Corporation (FRCC) and 10,000,000 common shares in Lloyds Richfield Industrial Corporation (LRIC). As a result, FRCC and LRIC ceased to be subsidiaries of CMT. Accordingly, Republic became an associate investee of CMT.

On October 9, 2007, the Securities and Exchange Commission approved the merger of CMT's subsidiaries, Seacem Silos, Inc. (SSI) and Seacem Trading Corporation (STC), SSI's subsidiary, Agrodynamics Philippines, Inc., and STC's subsidiary, Hopkins Holdings, Inc., where SSI is the surviving corporation. SSI remains a wholly-owned subsidiary of CMT. SSI has not started commercial operations.

Source: SEC Form 17-A (2007)

Reference: http://www.pse.com.ph/

(Note: double click image to enlarge)

Analysis:

CMT is now -0.10 bearish. The drop of the DOW and PSE did not affected CMT from improving its status. It finally crosses above the 10 day moving average signifying that it is now starting to be bullish. A mini hammer formation is another proof of a more bullish trend expected to occur by tomorrow hoping DOW will end the day well. ADX reading is 35.74 and Williams %R reading is -59.09.

Bollinger Bands are 67.3% narrower than normal. The narrow width of the bands suggests low volatility as compared to CMT()'s normal range. Therefore, the probability of volatility increasing with a sharp price move has increased for the near-term. The bands have been in this narrow range for the past 7 days. The probability of a significant price move increases the longer the bands remain in this narrow range.

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Support/Resistance:

Despite the drop of the market today, CMT's major support line at 50% fibonacci fan still holds. It just pass by the 38.2% fibonacci time extension line. This together with the bullish hammer candlestick will indicate a possible increase in price the next coming days. Hopefully by tomorrow if not the next day. As long as this support line is not broken we will expect the price to continue trending upward along this support line.

Suggestion: BUY

Stock in Focus: SOUTHEAST ASIA CEMENT HOLDINGS, INC. (June 26, 2009)

BUSINESS PROFILE

SOUTHEAST ASIA CEMENT HOLDINGS, INC.

Southeast Asia Cement Holdings, Inc. (CMT) was established on May 3, 1994 as a cement holding company, and listed at the Philippine Stock Exchange on December 14, 1994. In December 2003, CMT subscribed to 1,548,614,753 common shares of Republic Cement Corporation. As payment for the said subscription, CMT exchanged its 19,960,995 common shares in FR Cement Corporation (FRCC) and 10,000,000 common shares in Lloyds Richfield Industrial Corporation (LRIC). As a result, FRCC and LRIC ceased to be subsidiaries of CMT. Accordingly, Republic became an associate investee of CMT.

On October 9, 2007, the Securities and Exchange Commission approved the merger of CMT's subsidiaries, Seacem Silos, Inc. (SSI) and Seacem Trading Corporation (STC), SSI's subsidiary, Agrodynamics Philippines, Inc., and STC's subsidiary, Hopkins Holdings, Inc., where SSI is the surviving corporation. SSI remains a wholly-owned subsidiary of CMT. SSI has not started commercial operations.

Source: SEC Form 17-A (2007)

Reference: http://www.pse.com.ph/

(Note: double click image to enlarge)

Analysis:

Base on the 20 day DPO reading, CMT is -0.01 bearish. The Williams %R reading is -70.37 indicating a BUY signal since June 24, 2009. Upward trend strength is now 38.19 base on ADX reading. This slowdown in trend strength is mainly due to the fact that many traders have neglected the capability of this stock. Before the retracement, CMT has the strongest trend strength among the other stocks. Its strongest ADX reading of 76.30 occured last June 5, 2009 before the retracement occured. A proof that this stock was simply neglected can be seen after the big flash out of traders that occured June 17, 2009. Three consecutive horizontally alligned dojis occured and small volatility can be seen here onwards. The bollinger bands also can attest to this. According to the bollinger band readings, the price have been on this narrow range for 6 days already and the longer it stays on this range the greater is the probability of a significant price increase. What usually happens after a small volatility in stock is a large volatility, therefore this factor is a big plus to this stock.

(Note: double picture to enlarge)

Support/Resistance:

Based on fibonnaci readings the current price is above the 38.2% fibonnaci retracement support line at 0.74. The price is also currently trending along the 50% fibonnaci fan support line. Then base on the fibonnaci time extension the price just reach the 38.2% line, so we expect a major change in price direction possibly upward by monday or tuesday.

Suggestion: BUY